|
Why would
anyone execute an HTA
Dear Art,
Why would anyone execute an HTA (Hedge-to-Arrive)
when they can simply sell futures and buy out of the money calls to
participate if prices spike up during the growing season? Once an HTA is
signed a yield commitment is established and essentially the crop insurance
is assigned to the elevator...using the futures eliminates "non-delivery"
risk.
We have contracted grain into the elevator and feed
yard using HTA's since the 70's from others but use futures for our own
production....we also completely explain the "non-delivery risk" and never
intend to leave unhedged the probability of upside price risk, i.e. cover
with at the money calls, out of the money calls, or now days with a
combination weather hedge and calls. Execute a HTA with a grain company
and/or feedyard and you become "captive" to excessive transaction costs,
service fees, and manipulated cash basis quotes; which to me is a big part
of the "non-delivery risk" which many farmers pay for by not margining their
individual futures.
Grain Buyer
Dear Buyer,
The non-rolling HTA is nothing more than a forward
contract with an open basis to be set later. The non-delivery risk is only
slightly higher with HTA than futures. In both cases the grower will cancel
out of the contract if the crop fails. It is just easier to cancel out of
futures. So selling futures does NOT eliminate the non-delivery risk. If
the crop fails and price increases, in both cases the grower will have to
use the crop insurance payment to either cover margin losses or pay
cancellation penalties. So the only question is will the cancellation
penalty be greater than the margin losses?
If the market really spikes the grower does not have to
tie up his credit to meet margin calls. The elevator will make those margin
calls for the grower. There are also a number of ag lenders who may be
little “shy” about funding margin calls.
There are two major downsides risks for an HTA over
futures. First, the grower is committed to delivery at that elevator so
there is only one buyer to negotiate the basis. Selling futures allows
growers to negotiate the basis with many buyers. So it is possible the
“hidden” fees in the HTA may be higher that than the margin calls as you
suggest. But that is also true with a forward contract.
The second risk is one of contract default. If the
elevator were to be forced into bankruptcy then the HTA would be worthless.
This is a very small risk if the HTA is with a large and established buyer
but with “small” independent elevators or feed lots, there have been
bankruptcy cases that made their forward contacts or HTAs worthless. It is
very important to understand the financial condition of the firm offering
the HTA or forward contract.
Under a futures contract both the buyer and selling
must post performance money referred to as margin money. This funding will
insure that both the buyer and selling will reform on the contract making
contract default impossible. However, growers that do not have sufficient
credit reserve or timely credit should not use futures. This is a major
advantage for some growers. Growers would not want to be forced out of a
futures position because they ran out of margin money.
The other major reason some growers prefer HTA over
futures is they simply don’t like dealing with margin calls. The HTA or
“open basis” contract used to sell new crop for harvest delivery have nearly
the same risk as the forward contract. HTA’s that allow the grower to
cancel and then roll the contract forward is very different and carry the
additional risk caused by old crop-new crop price spread.
Futures clearly give growers more flexibility. If
prices fall and a grower’s crop fails then it is not necessary to buy grain
to deliver as would be necessary under a forward contract or HTA to capture
the gain. The grower would simply liquidate the futures position and
capture the gain. Futures will allow the grower to liquidate the position
and not deliver at harvest time. The grower could then take advantage of
gains from storage (if available) while a forward contact or HTA would
require delivery.
ART
|